Ten Things to Watch for in the State of the Union

By Dan Gerstein

To kick off our State of the Union Blog-a-Thon, and set the stage for the discussion to come, we've put together a viewer's guide of ten things to watch for during Wednesday's speech.  The first five are more general, the second five more political, and all of them are meant to be non-partisan.  With that, here goes.

1) What IS the state of the union?  One of the trickiest challenges for a president and his speechwriters in tough economic times like these is choosing the right words to describe the country's present state.  Sound too optimistic and you risk looking out of touch.  Sound too dour and you risk depressing your audience.  How will Obama walk that fine rhetorical line and set the tone for the rest of his maiden SOTU?

2) What's the big news nugget? It's standard practice for modern presidents to announce at least one major new policy proposal in the SOTU to drive media coverage.  Obama has already trotted out two headline-generating ideas this week —a middle class relief package and a three-year domestic spending freeze —that we know he'll tout.  Does he have one or two more up his sleeve that he's saving for the hall?

3) What's Obama's line? Modern SOTUs rarely seem to produce enduring and/or presidency defining turns of phrases —one notable exception being Bill Clinton's declaration that the era of big government was over.  But they do usually yield a singular soundbite that the chattering classes seize on and the TV networks repeatedly loop.  Will Obama, with his acute sense of history, swing for the posterity fences?  If not, which piece of the speech will be replayed and remembered the next day?

4) Who's that girl (or guy)? Ever since Reagan, presidents have invited a special symbolic guest (or six) to sit in the First Lady's box for the SOTU as a way to put a human face on their agenda and get some easy associational love.  How will Obama use his human capital?  Will he opt for quality (focusing on one issue or theme) or quantity (multiple stories to touch on multiple challenges)?

5) Where's the drama? Another staple of the SOTU, especially in the blog era, is the soap opera sideshow.  One year it's Nancy Pelosi not standing for President Bush.  The next it's Hillary Clinton caught on camera rolling her eyes at W.  Then it's Hillary being snubbed by then-Senator Obama, her campaign rival.  Who will be this year's distraction?  Will there be another Joe Wilson moment? Or will the riding high Republicans be on their best behavior?

6) How's my posture?  With Democrats reeling from the Scott Brown Mass-acre, and the Obama's approval numbers dipping below 50 percent, the president comes into the SOTU under tremendous and conflicting pressure to change the tenor of his leadership.  The left is calling for more combativeness and principle; moderates are seeking more modesty and pragmatism.  What turn and tone will Obama take?  Will he split the difference — or split his party?

7) Who will take the blame?  The common message coming out of Massachusetts, according to many analysts, is that Washington still doesn't work; that most voters in the broad middle feel like nothing has change; and that nothing, as a result, is getting done on the economy.  Will Obama validate that frustration by taking some measure of responsibility for it?  Or will he continue, much to the consternation of Republicans, to emphasize the problems he inherited and implicitly (if not explicitly) point the finger at the Bush Administration?

8) Does he feel our pain?  The White House clearly sees the SOTU as a pivot point to refocus on the economy.  Hence the coordinated roll out of the two big policy pieces this week on the middle class and deficit reduction.  But will those new policy nuggets be enough to win back the public's confidence — in particular the salty independents who decided the Massachusetts Senate election?  What else can Obama, who has often struggled to connect with working class voters, say and do to communicate that he gets what they are going through and shares their priorities?

9) What's the deal on health care?  While the economy will be the central focus of the speech, the people in the room and the diehard activists watching will be looking first and foremost for the President to clarify which way he wants to go on health care reform.  Will he unequivocally call for passage of a comprehensive coverage bill like the one he was negotiating with House or Senate leaders before the Brown Mass-acre — and reassure his dispirited base?  Or will he signal that he's open to working out a scaled back plan that could get a handful of moderate Republican votes?

10) How much foreign policy is enough?  With the economy dominating the public's list of concerns, and health care dominating Washington's attention, there's an expectation that Obama's speech will be heavy on domestic issues and light on international ones.  But national security is clearly top of mind for this president, who spent months trying to find the right strategy for the deteriorating war in Afghanistan and is still dealing with the fallout of the Christmas bombing attempt in Detroit.  How will he balance those priorities in time and tone?

Stay tuned here for some predictions.

It's On: State of the Union Blog-A-Thon

Today we're launching a special series on the BloGG previewing Wednesday's State of the Union Address — or as we like to call it, the speechwriters' Super Bowl. 

We have invited speechwriting pros of all political persuasions to chime in with their thoughts on what President Obama should or shouldn't say in his maiden SOTU, offer some historical perspective, or just join in the general kibbitzing.  We'll be posting their responses throughout today and all day Wednesday up to speech time.

We will also be posting links to other pre-speech commentaries and reports that we think are worth sharing.

We hope you will join the conversation.  As they say about voting in Chicago, please feel free to comment early and often on any of the posts that pique your interest or interest your pique.

Let the speechifying begin!

P.S.  We will be continuing the conservation Wednesday night with live commentary throughout the speech.  You can sign up to participate on our Facebook page. 

Featured Writer: Lauren Weiner

Over at the First Things website, Gotham Friend Lauren Weiner has stirred the pot (so to speak) with a long, provocative meditation on the politics of folk music, entitled "Where Have All the Lefties Gone?".  It's an impressive piece of work — who knew a Pentagon speechwriter could be such an expert on flower-powered culture — and well worth a read.  And don't miss the comments (many nerves were clearly touched).

Men with Pens: Prepare to Laugh

What do you get when you cross swordplay with wordplay?  The Princess Bride Guide to Copywriting.  Fun weekend reading and a few helpful insights from the guys at Men with Pens.

Latest Gerstein Forbes Column

In his weekly Forbes.com political column out today, Gotham President Dan Gerstein offers a contrarian take on Scott Brown's stunning victory special Senate election in Massachusetts.  His case: once you get past the partisan spin and listen to what Brown actually campaigned on, there's a clear message and menace to both parties about their lack of leadership. You can read the full column here.

The Necessity of the Semicolon

No matter what your relationship to the semicolon -- be it just a winky face or a much-needed pause between ideas -- it's hard to write without.  Ragan's Michael Sebastian parses out just why the silly-looking punctuation is here to stay.

Lessons from Thomas Merton

By Mark Shaw

Thomas Merton was called the "greatest spiritual writer of the twentieth century" by Dutch priest and author Henri Nouwen. Ann Lamott said Merton was "a source of lightness and comfort and humor," and Joan Baez believed Merton "had a lightness like the Dalai Lama."

Certainly all of these comments are true, and Merton, a contemporary of Hemingway, Kerouac, and Fitzgerald who wrote more than seventy books including such classics as The Seven Storey Mountain, New Seeds of Contemplation, Wisdom of the Desert, and No Man Is An Island, remains a spiritual voice today regarding his advocacy of the contemplative life, detaching oneself from the crazy side of life.

But, like nearly every legendary wordsmith before him, Merton had a dark side, one caused by guilt over pre-monastic sins ranging from drunkenness, womanizing to the extent of fathering an illegitimate child, adultery, and being a draft dodger. Together with his lack of knowing of what loving, and being loved, was all about, Merton suffered in anguish beneath a mask of holiness pretending to be something he was not so as to satisfy Catholic Church handlers bent on preserving his "plastic saint" image.

Only when Merton finally broke free of the chains binding him in 1966 by falling madly in love with Margie Smith, a student nurse half his age, could he finally discover freedom. He called her a "miracle in my life," one "who completes me." The erotic affair was condemned by the church and Merton was forced to sneak romantic interludes into the clandestine relationship to the extent of making love to Margie in a friendly doctor's office. But the true, selfless love he felt for Margie finally caused Merton to give her up since he knew a life with him under the thumb of the Catholics would be no good for either one of them. Forsaking the love he had waited his whole life to experience, he broke her heart and his, but simply having learned how to love, and be loved set him free as never before.

Exposing the private, warts and all, side of this gifted wordsmith has become quite controversial as vicious attacks from all sides, especially those who feel the book is "anti-catholic," have occurred including accusations that this author chose a "lurid title" with sexual overtones replete with "purple prose." The book has been called a "farce," "pulp fiction," and "badly written . . . a bad book." Poor reviews are part of the risk any author takes, but the personal attacks have been shocking especially when compared with complimentary ones such as Merton scholar Robert Inchausti's saying, "I thought your book was brave, beautifully written, and an honest tribute to Merton." A fellow author called the book "a masterpiece," and educator Jim Seaton wrote, "This is a compulsively readable book, written with the verve and pace of a mystery thriller."

Attempts at banning the book have resulted in the Abbey of Gethsemani, where Merton spent more than twenty years, denying its sale at its bookshop. The assault continues, but there is hope as many people not afraid of the truth are reading what I believe to be a very inspiring story, a true Romeo and Juliet, and discovering a human side of Merton they never knew before. This permits them to connect with the famous monk, and to read his wise words of advice for those confused in a confusing world. Writers like Merton are the guideposts by which we learn and grow, and to silence him is not only censorship and denial of free speech, but denial of our basic right to read all points of view whether we agree with them or not.

Mark Shaw is a "reformed" defense lawyer and television legal analyst turned author of nearly twenty books. Formally a columnist for the Aspen Daily News, Mark lives near Boulder, Colorado with his wife Wen-ying Lu, and their beloved Labrador, Black Sox. More about Mark: www.markshawbooks.net.